Bitcoin’s tech stock divergence is a ‘fire alarm’ for fiat: Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes warns that AI-related job losses will spark a credit crisis, forcing central banks to print money, which will drive Bitcoin to new all-time highs.

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The divergence between Bitcoin and tech stocks is a warning sign of a potential artificial intelligence-driven credit crisis that could lead to more central bank money printing, says Arthur Hayes.

“Bitcoin is the global fiat liquidity fire alarm. It is the most responsive freely traded asset to the fiat credit supply,” said the crypto entrepreneur in his latest blog post on Wednesday.

Hayes went on to caution that the recent divergence between Bitcoin (BTC) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index “sounds the alarm that a massive credit destruction event is nigh.”

When these two previously correlated asset classes diverge, “it warrants further investigation into any trigger that could cause a destruction of fiat” — mostly dollars and credit, which is also known as deflation, he said.

Hayes believes that job losses due to AI adoption will have a major impact on consumer credit and mortgage debt “because of the inability of white-collar knowledge worker debt donkeys to meet their monthly payments.”

In 2025, companies cited AI when announcing 55,000 job cuts, more than 12 times the number of layoffs attributed to AI just two years earlier, reported CBS News in early February.

“This AI financial crisis will restart the money printing machine for realz,” said Hayes.

His loose model suggests that a 20% reduction in the 72 million “knowledge workers” in the US could produce around $557 billion in consumer credit and mortgage losses, representing a 13% write-down of US commercial bank equity.

Hayes speculates that weaker regional banks would buckle first, depositors would flee, and credit markets would seize. The Federal Reserve would eventually panic and start printing money.

“While the Fed is fighting windmills, AI-related job losses will destroy the balance sheets of American banks,” he said.

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Hayes predicted that this surge in fiat credit creation would “pump Bitcoin decisively off its lows,” and that the future expectation of increased fiat creation to save the banking system would “propel Bitcoin to a new all-time high.”

In addition to Bitcoin, Hayes said there are two altcoins that his company, Maelstrom, will “deploy excess stables into once the Fed blinks.” Those coins are Zcash (ZEC) and Hyperliquid (HYPE).

However, this is not the first radical money-printing thesis Hayes has proposed.

In January, he said that the Federal Reserve would print money to alleviate the Japanese bond crisis.

In December 2025, he predicted that BTC would surge to $200,000 by March due to money printing through a new Fed liquidity tool called Reserve Management Purchases, which resembles quantitative easing.

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